467

Confidence intervals for the normal mean utilizing prior information

Abstract

We consider X1,X2,...,XnX_1,X_2,...,X_n that are independent and identically N(μ,σ2)N(\mu,\sigma^2) distributed random variables. Suppose that the parameter of interest is μ\mu and also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that μ/σ\mu/\sigma is close to 0. Our aim is to find a frequentist 1α1-\alpha confidence interval for μ\mu that utilizes this prior information. Pratt and Brown, Casella and Hwang have described such confidence intervals for the cases that σ2\sigma^2 is known and that σ2\sigma^2 is unknown respectively. These confidence intervals have the major problem that if the prior information happens to be badly incorrect (i.e. μ/σ\mu/\sigma happens to be far away from 0) then these confidence intervals have very large expected lengths. In this paper we find 1α1-\alpha confidence intervals for μ\mu that do not suffer from this problem. For the case that σ2\sigma^2 is known we do this by extending the method used by Pratt. For the case that σ2\sigma^2 is unknown we do this using a new methodology. Our 1α1-\alpha confidence intervals have the following desirable properties. They have expected lengths that (a) are relatively small when the prior information about μ/σ\mu/\sigma is correct and (b) have a maximum value that is not too large. They also coincide with the corresponding standard confidence interval when the data happens to strongly contradict the prior information about μ/σ\mu/\sigma.

View on arXiv
Comments on this paper