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Asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimator for time inhomogeneous diffusion processes

Abstract

We study asymptotic behavior of maximum likelihood estimator for a time inhomogeneous diffusion process given by a SDE dXt=αb(t)Xtdt+σ(t)dBtdX_t=\alpha b(t)X_t dt + \sigma(t) dB_t, t[0,T)t\in[0,T), with a parameter αR\alpha\in R, where T(0,]T\in(0,\infty] and (Bt)t[0,T)(B_t)_{t\in[0,T)} is a standard Wiener process. We formulate sufficient conditions under which the MLE of α\alpha normalized by Fisher information converges to the limit distribution of Dickey-Fuller statistics. Next we study a SDE dYt=αb(t)a(Yt)dt+σ(t)dBtdY_t=\alpha b(t)a(Y_t) dt + \sigma(t) dB_t, t[0,T)t\in[0,T), with a perturbed drift satisfying a(x)=x+O(1+xγ)a(x)=x+O(1+|x|^\gamma) with some γ[0,1)\gamma\in[0,1). We give again sufficient conditions under which the MLE of α\alpha normalized by Fisher information converges to the limit distribution of Dickey-Fuller statistics.

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