Estimating discontinuous periodic signals in a non-time homogeneous diffusion process

We consider a diffusion with -periodic time dependence in its drift; under an unknown parameter , some periodic discontinuity -- called signal -- occurs at times , . Assuming positive Harris recurrence of and exploiting the periodicity structure, we prove limit theorems for certain martingales and functionals of the process . They allow to consider the statistical model parametrized by locally in small neighbourhoods of some fixed with radius as . We prove convergence of local models to a limit experiment studied first by Ibragimov and Khasminskii [IH 81] which is not quadratic in its parameter. We discuss the behaviour of estimators under contiguous alternatives, and prove a local asymptotic minimax bound under quadratic loss which is attained by the corresponding Bayes estimator.
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