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Estimating discontinuous periodic signals in a non-time homogeneous diffusion process

Abstract

We consider a diffusion (ξt)t0(\xi_t)_{t\ge 0} with TT-periodic time dependence in its drift; under an unknown parameter \vthΘ\vth\in\Theta, some periodic discontinuity -- called signal -- occurs at times kT+\vthkT{+}\vth, k\bbnk\in\bbn. Assuming positive Harris recurrence of (ξkT)k\bbn0(\xi_{kT})_{k\in\bbn_0} and exploiting the periodicity structure, we prove limit theorems for certain martingales and functionals of the process (ξt)t0(\xi_t)_{t\ge 0}. They allow to consider the statistical model parametrized by \vthΘ\vth\in\Theta locally in small neighbourhoods of some fixed \vth\vth with radius 1n\frac{1}{n} as \nto\nto. We prove convergence of local models to a limit experiment studied first by Ibragimov and Khasminskii [IH 81] which is not quadratic in its parameter. We discuss the behaviour of estimators under contiguous alternatives, and prove a local asymptotic minimax bound under quadratic loss which is attained by the corresponding Bayes estimator.

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