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Locally most powerful sequential tests of a simple hypothesis vs one-sided alternatives

11 May 2009
A. Novikov
P. Novikov
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Abstract

Let X1,X2,...X_1,X_2,...X1​,X2​,... be a discrete-time stochastic process with a distribution PθP_\thetaPθ​, θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ, where Θ\ThetaΘ is an open subset of the real line. We consider the problem of testing a simple hypothesis H0:H_0:H0​: θ=θ0\theta=\theta_0θ=θ0​ versus a composite alternative H1:H_1:H1​: θ>θ0\theta>\theta_0θ>θ0​, where θ0∈Θ\theta_0\in\Thetaθ0​∈Θ is some fixed point. The main goal of this article is to characterize the structure of locally most powerful sequential tests in this problem. For any sequential test (ψ,ϕ)(\psi,\phi)(ψ,ϕ) with a (randomized) stopping rule ψ\psiψ and a (randomized) decision rule ϕ\phiϕ let α(ψ,ϕ)\alpha(\psi,\phi)α(ψ,ϕ) be the type I error probability, β˙0(ψ,ϕ)\dot \beta_0(\psi,\phi)β˙​0​(ψ,ϕ) the derivative, at θ=θ0\theta=\theta_0θ=θ0​, of the power function, and N(ψ)\mathscr N(\psi)N(ψ) an average sample number of the test (ψ,ϕ)(\psi,\phi)(ψ,ϕ). Then we are concerned with the problem of maximizing β˙0(ψ,ϕ)\dot \beta_0(\psi,\phi)β˙​0​(ψ,ϕ) in the class of all sequential tests such that \alpha(\psi,\phi)\leq \alpha\quad{and}\quad \mathscr N(\psi)\leq \mathscr N, where α∈[0,1]\alpha\in[0,1]α∈[0,1] and N≥1\mathscr N\geq 1N≥1 are some restrictions. It is supposed that N(ψ)\mathscr N(\psi)N(ψ) is calculated under some fixed (not necessarily coinciding with one of PθP_\thetaPθ​) distribution of the process X1,X2...X_1,X_2...X1​,X2​.... The structure of optimal sequential tests is characterized.

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