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On the Expectation of the First Exit Time of a Nonnegative Markov Process Started at a Quasistationary Distribution

Abstract

Let {M_n}_{n\ge 0}beanonnegativeMarkovprocesswithstationarytransitionprobabilities.ThequasistationarydistributionsreferredtointhisnoteareoftheformQA(x)=limnP(MnxM0A,M1A,...,MnA).Supposethat be a nonnegative Markov process with stationary transition probabilities. The quasistationary distributions referred to in this note are of the form Q_A(x) = lim_{n\to\infty} P(M_n \le x | M_0 \le A, M_1 \le A, ..., M_n \le A) . Suppose that M_0hasdistribution has distribution \Qb_AanddefineTAQA=min{nMn>A,n1},thefirsttimewhenMnexceedsA.WeprovidesufficientconditionsforETAQA and define T_A^{Q_A} = \min\{n | M_n > A, n\ge 1\}, the first time when M_n exceeds A. We provide sufficient conditions for E T_A^{Q_A} to be an increasing function of A.

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