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Estimating a periodicity parameter in the drift of a time inhomogeneous diffusion

Abstract

We consider a diffusion (ξt)t0(\xi_t)_{t\ge 0} whose drift contains some deterministic periodic signal. Its shape being fixed and known, up to scaling in time, the periodicity of the signal is the unknown parameter ϑ\vartheta of interest. We consider sequences of local models at ϑ\vartheta, corresponding to continuous observation of the process ξ\xi on the time interval [0,n][0,n] as nn\to\infty, with suitable choice of local scale at ϑ\vartheta. Our tools --under an ergodicity condition-- are path segments of ξ\xi corresponding to the period ϑ\vartheta, and limit theorems for certain functionals of the process ξ\xi which are not additive functionals. When the signal is smooth, with local scale n3/2n^{-3/2} at ϑ\vartheta, we have local asymptotic normality (LAN) in the sense of Le Cam (1969). When the signal has a finite number of discontinuities, with local scale n2n^{-2} at ϑ\vartheta, we obtain a limit experiment of different type, studied by Ibragimov and Khasminskii (1981), where smoothness of the parametrization (in the sense of Hellinger distance) is H\"older 12\frac12.

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