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Proper local scoring rules

26 January 2011
M. Parry
A. Dawid
Steffen Lauritzen
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Abstract

We investigate proper scoring rules for continuous distributions on the real line. It is known that the log score is the only such rule that depends on the quoted density only through its value at the outcome that materializes. Here we allow further dependence on a finite number mmm of derivatives of the density at the outcome, and describe a large class of such mmm-local proper scoring rules: these exist for all even mmm but no odd mmm. We further show that for m≥2m\geq2m≥2 all such mmm-local rules can be computed without knowledge of the normalizing constant of the distribution.

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