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Model selection for Poisson processes with covariates

Abstract

We observe nn inhomogeneous Poisson processes with covariates and aim at estimating their intensities. To handle this problem, we assume that the intensity of each Poisson process is of the form s(,x)s (\cdot, x) where xx is the covariate and where ss is an unknown function. We propose a model selection approach where the models are used to approximate the multivariate function ss. We show that our estimator satisfies an oracle-type inequality under very weak assumptions both on the intensities and the models. By using an Hellinger-type loss, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds and specify them under various kind of assumptions on the target function ss such as being smooth or composite. Besides, we show that our estimation procedure is robust with respect to these assumptions.

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