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Coverage-adjusted confidence intervals for a binomial proportion

Abstract

We consider the classic problem of interval estimation of a proportion pp based on binomial sampling. The "exact" Clopper-Pearson confidence interval for pp is known to be unnecessarily conservative. We propose coverage-adjustments of the Clopper-Pearson interval using prior and posterior distributions of pp. The adjusted intervals have improved coverage and are often shorter than competing intervals found in the literature. Using new heatmap-type plots for comparing confidence intervals, we find that the coverage-adjusted intervals are particularly suitable for pp close to 0 or 1.

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