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Thomas Bayes' walk on manifolds

3 June 2012
I. Castillo
G. Kerkyacharian
D. Picard
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Abstract

Convergence of the Bayes posterior measure is considered in canonical statistical settings where observations sit on a geometrical object such as a compact manifold, or more generally on a compact metric space verifying some conditions. A natural geometric prior based on randomly rescaled solutions of the heat equation is considered. Upper and lower bound posterior contraction rates are derived.

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