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An unbiased estimate for the mean of a {0,1} random variable with
relative error distribution independent of the mean
Abstract
Say are independent identically distributed Bernoulli random variables with mean . This paper builds a new estimate of that has the property that the relative error, , of the estimate does not depend in any way on the value of . This allows the construction of exact confidence intervals for of any desired level without needing any sort of limit or approximation. In addition, is unbiased. For and in , to obtain an estimate where , the new algorithm takes on average at most samples. It is also shown that any such algorithm that applies whenever requires at least samples. The same algorithm can also be applied to estimate the mean of any random variable that falls in .
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