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The distribution of the maximum of an ARMA(1, 1) process

Abstract

We give the cumulative distribution function of MnM_n, the maximum of a sequence of nn observations from an ARMA(1, 1) process. Solutions are first given in terms of repeated integrals and then for the case, where the underlying random variables are absolutely continuous. The distribution of MnM_n is then given as a weighted sum of the nnth powers of the eigenvalues of a non-symmetric Fredholm kernel. The weights are given in terms of the left and right eigenfunctions of the kernel. These results are large deviations expansions for estimates, since the maximum need not be standardized to have a limit. In fact, such a limit need not exist.

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