Testing epidemic change in nearly nonstationary process with statistics
based on residuals
Abstract
We study an epidemic type change in innovations of a first order autoregressive process $ y_{n,k} = \varphi_n y_{n,k-1} + \epsilon_{k} + a_{n,k}$, where is either a constant in or a sequence in , converging to 1. For inside some unknown interval , while for outside . When , we have an epidemic deviation from the usual (zero) mean of innovations. Since innovations are not observed, we build uniform increments statistics on residuals of the process . We assume that innovations are regularly varying with index or satisfies integrability condition for and for . We find the limit distributions of the tests under no change and prove consistency under short epidemics that is for some .
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