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Testing epidemic change in nearly nonstationary process with statistics based on residuals

Abstract

We study an epidemic type change in innovations of a first order autoregressive process $ y_{n,k} = \varphi_n y_{n,k-1} + \epsilon_{k} + a_{n,k}$, where ϕn\phi_n is either a constant in (1,1)(-1,1) or a sequence in (0,1)(0,1), converging to 1. For kk inside some unknown interval In=(k,k+]\mathbb{I}_n^\ast=(k^\ast,k^\ast+\ell^\ast], an,k=ana_{n,k}=a_n while an,k=0a_{n,k}=0 for kk outside In\mathbb{I}_n^\ast. When an0a_n\neq 0, we have an epidemic deviation from the usual (zero) mean of innovations. Since innovations are not observed, we build uniform increments statistics on residuals (ϵ^k)(\widehat{\epsilon}_k) of the process yn,ky_{n,k}. We assume that innovations (ϵk)(\epsilon_k) are regularly varying with index p2p \ge 2 or satisfies integrability condition limttpP(ϵ1>t)=0\lim_{t \to \infty} t^p P(|\epsilon_1| > t) = 0 for p>2p > 2 and Eϵk2<E\epsilon_k^2 < \infty for p=2p=2. We find the limit distributions of the tests under no change and prove consistency under short epidemics that is =O(nβ)\ell^\ast=O(n^\beta) for some 0<β1/20<\beta\le 1/2.

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