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A Divergent Random Walk on Stairs

Abstract

We consider a state-dependent, time-dependent, discrete random walks Xt{an}X_t^{\{a_n\}} defined on natural numbers N\mathbb{N} (bent to a "stair" in N2\mathbb{N}^2) where the random walk depends on input of a positive deterministic sequence {an}\{a_n\}. This walk has the peculiar property that if we set ana_n to be ++\infty for all nn, it converges to a stationary distribution π()\pi(\cdot); but if ana_n is uniformly bounded (over all nn) by any upper bound a(0,)a \in (0,\infty), this walk diverges to infinity with probability 1. It is thus interesting to consider the intermediate case where an<a_n<\infty for all nn but ana_n eventually tends to ++\infty. (Latuszynski et al., 2013) first defined this walk and conjectured that a particular choice of sequence {an}\{a_n\} exists such that (i) ana_n \to \infty and, (ii) P(Xt{an})=1P(X_t^{\{a_n\}} \to \infty )=1. They managed to construct a sequence {an}\{a_n\} that satisfies (i) and P(Xt{an})>0P(X_t^{\{a_n\}}\to \infty)>0, which is weaker than (ii). In this paper, we obtain a stronger result: for any σ<1\sigma<1, there exists a choice of {an}\{a_n\} so that P(Xt)σP(X_t\to \infty)\ge \sigma. Our result does not apply when σ=1\sigma=1, the original conjecture remains open. We record our method here for technical interests.

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