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The square root rule for adaptive importance sampling

Abstract

In adaptive importance sampling, and other contexts, we have unbiased and uncorrelated estimates of a common quantity μ\mu and the variance of the kk'th estimate is thought to decay like kyk^{-y} for an unknown rate parameter y[0,1]y\in [0,1]. If we combine the estimates as though y=1/2y=1/2, then the resulting estimate attains the optimal variance rate with a constant that is too large by at most 9/89/8 for any 0y10\le y\le 1 and any number KK of estimates.

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