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Optimal Chernoff and Hoeffding Bounds for Finite Markov Chains

Abstract

This paper develops an optimal Chernoff type bound for the probabilities of large deviations of sums k=1nf(Xk)\sum_{k=1}^n f (X_k) where ff is a real-valued function and (Xk)kN0(X_k)_{k \in \mathbb{N}_0} is a finite Markov chain with an arbitrary initial distribution and an irreducible stochastic matrix coming from a large class of stochastic matrices. Our bound is optimal in the large deviations sense attaining a constant prefactor and an exponential decay with the optimal large deviations rate. Moreover through a Pinsker type inequality and a Hoeffding type lemma, we are able to loosen up our Chernoff type bound to a Hoeffding type bound and reveal the sub-Gaussian nature of the sums. Finally we show a uniform multiplicative ergodic theorem for our class of Markov chains.

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