PredDiff: Explanations and Interactions from Conditional Expectations

PredDiff is a model-agnostic, local attribution method that is firmly rooted in probability theory. Its simple intuition is to measure prediction changes while marginalizing features. In this work, we clarify properties of PredDiff and its connection to Shapley values. We stress important differences between classification and regression, which require a specific treatment within both formalisms. We extend PredDiff by introducing a new, well-founded measure for interaction effects between arbitrary feature subsets. The study of interaction effects represents an inevitable step towards a comprehensive understanding of black-box models and is particularly important for science applications. As opposed to Shapley values, our novel measure maintains the original linear scaling and is thus generally applicable to real-world problems.