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Copula Modelling of Serially Correlated Multivariate Data with Hidden Structures

8 July 2022
R. Zimmerman
Radu V. Craiu
Vianey Leos‐Barajas
ArXiv (abs)PDFHTML
Abstract

We propose a copula-based extension of the hidden Markov model (HMM) which applies when the observations recorded at each time in the sample are multivariate. The joint model produced by the copula extension allows decoding of the hidden states based on information from multiple observations. However, unlike the case of independent marginals, the copula dependence structure embedded into the likelihood poses additional computational challenges. We tackle the latter using a theoretically-justified variation of the EM algorithm developed within the framework of inference functions for margins. We illustrate the method using numerical experiments and an analysis of house occupancy.

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