DeepTime: Deep Time-Index Meta-Learning for Non-Stationary Time-Series Forecasting

Advances in I.T. infrastructure has led to the collection of longer sequences of time-series. Such sequences are typically non-stationary, exhibiting distribution shifts over time -- a challenging scenario for the forecasting task, due to the problems of covariate shift, and conditional distribution shift. In this paper, we show that deep time-index models possess strong synergies with a meta-learning formulation of forecasting, displaying significant advantages over existing neural forecasting methods in tackling the problems arising from non-stationarity. These advantages include having a stronger smoothness prior, avoiding the problem of covariate shift, and having better sample efficiency. To this end, we propose DeepTime, a deep time-index model trained via meta-learning. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets in the long sequence time-series forecasting setting demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods, and is highly efficient. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/DeepTime.