Reducing the requirement for densely annotated masks in medical image segmentation is important due to cost constraints. In this paper, we consider the problem of inferring pixel-level predictions of brain lesions by only using image-level labels for training. By leveraging recent advances in generative diffusion probabilistic models (DPM), we synthesize counterfactuals of "How would a patient appear if X pathology was not present?". The difference image between the observed patient state and the healthy counterfactual can be used for inferring the location of pathology. We generate counterfactuals that correspond to the minimal change of the input such that it is transformed to healthy domain. This requires training with healthy and unhealthy data in DPMs. We improve on previous counterfactual DPMs by manipulating the generation process with implicit guidance along with attention conditioning instead of using classifiers. Code is available at https://github.com/vios-s/Diff-SCM.
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