Adversarial transferability in black-box scenarios presents a unique challenge: while attackers can employ surrogate models to craft adversarial examples, they lack assurance on whether these examples will successfully compromise the target model. Until now, the prevalent method to ascertain success has been trial and error-testing crafted samples directly on the victim model. This approach, however, risks detection with every attempt, forcing attackers to either perfect their first try or face exposure. Our paper introduces a ranking strategy that refines the transfer attack process, enabling the attacker to estimate the likelihood of success without repeated trials on the victim's system. By leveraging a set of diverse surrogate models, our method can predict transferability of adversarial examples. This strategy can be used to either select the best sample to use in an attack or the best perturbation to apply to a specific sample. Using our strategy, we were able to raise the transferability of adversarial examples from a mere 20% - akin to random selection-up to near upper-bound levels, with some scenarios even witnessing a 100% success rate. This substantial improvement not only sheds light on the shared susceptibilities across diverse architectures but also demonstrates that attackers can forego the detectable trial-and-error tactics raising increasing the threat of surrogate-based attacks.
View on arXiv