Joint Estimation of Conditional Mean and Covariance for Unbalanced Panels

We propose a novel nonparametric kernel-based estimator of cross-sectional conditional mean and covariance matrices for large unbalanced panels. We show its consistency and provide finite-sample guarantees. In an empirical application, we estimate conditional mean and covariance matrices for a large unbalanced panel of monthly stock excess returns given macroeconomic and firm-specific covariates from 1962 to this http URL estimator performs well with respect to statistical measures. It is informative for empirical asset pricing, generating conditional mean-variance efficient portfolios with substantial out-of-sample Sharpe ratios far beyond equal-weighted benchmarks.

@article{filipovic2025_2410.21858,
  title={ Joint Estimation of Conditional Mean and Covariance for Unbalanced Panels },
  author={ Damir Filipovic and Paul Schneider },
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.21858},
  year={ 2025 }
}