Risk-Aware Decision Making in Restless Bandits: Theory and Algorithms for Planning and Learning

In restless bandits, a central agent is tasked with optimally distributing limited resources across several bandits (arms), with each arm being a Markov decision process. In this work, we generalize the traditional restless bandits problem with a risk-neutral objective by incorporating risk-awareness, which is particularly important in various real-world applications especially when the decision maker seeks to mitigate downside risks. We establish indexability conditions for the case of a risk-aware objective and provide a solution based on Whittle index for the first time for the planning problem with finite-horizon non-stationary and for infinite-horizon stationary Markov decision processes. In addition, we address the learning problem when the true transition probabilities are unknown by proposing a Thompson sampling approach and show that it achieves bounded regret that scales sublinearly with the number of episodes and quadratically with the number of arms. The efficacy of our method in reducing risk exposure in restless bandits is illustrated through a set of numerical experiments in the contexts of machine replacement and patient scheduling applications under both planning and learning setups.