A new approach to locally adaptive polynomial regression

Adaptive bandwidth selection is a fundamental challenge in nonparametric regression. This paper introduces a new bandwidth selection procedure inspired by the optimality criteria for $\ell_0$-penalized regression. Although similar in spirit to Lepski's method and its variants in selecting the largest interval satisfying an admissibility criterion, our approach stems from a distinct philosophy, utilizing criteria based on $\ell_2$-norms of interval projections rather than explicit point and variance estimates. We obtain non-asymptotic risk bounds for the local polynomial regression methods based on our bandwidth selection procedure which adapt (near-)optimally to the local Hölder exponent of the underlying regression function simultaneously at all points in its domain. Furthermore, we show that there is a single ideal choice of a global tuning parameter in each case under which the above-mentioned local adaptivity holds. The optimal risks of our methods derive from the properties of solutions to a new ``bandwidth selection equation'' which is of independent interest. We believe that the principles underlying our approach provide a new perspective to the classical yet ever relevant problem of locally adaptive nonparametric regression.