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Post-detection inference for sequential changepoint localization

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Appendix:45 Pages
Abstract

This paper addresses a fundamental but largely unexplored challenge in sequential changepoint analysis: conducting inference following a detected change. We study the problem of localizing the changepoint using only the data observed up to a data-dependent stopping time at which a sequential detection algorithm A\mathcal A declares a change. We first construct confidence sets for the unknown changepoint when pre- and post-change distributions are assumed to be known. We then extend our framework to composite pre- and post-change scenarios. We impose no conditions on the observation space or on A\mathcal A -- we only need to be able to run A\mathcal A on simulated data sequences. In summary, this work offers both theoretically sound and practically effective tools for sequential changepoint localization.

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