Set and functional prediction: randomness, exchangeability, and conformal

This paper continues the study of the efficiency of conformal prediction as compared with more general randomness prediction and exchangeability prediction. It does not restrict itself to the case of classification, and our results will also be applicable to the case of regression. The price to pay is that efficiency will be attained only on average, albeit with respect to a wide range of probability measures on the label space.

@article{vovk2025_2502.19254,
  title={ Universality of conformal prediction under the assumption of randomness },
  author={ Vladimir Vovk },
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.19254},
  year={ 2025 }
}