Virtual Target Trajectory Prediction for Stochastic Targets

Trajectory prediction of other vehicles is crucial for autonomous vehicles, with applications from missile guidance to UAV collision avoidance. Typically, target trajectories are assumed deterministic, but real-world aerial vehicles exhibit stochastic behavior, such as evasive maneuvers or gliders circling in thermals. This paper uses Conditional Normalizing Flows, an unsupervised Machine Learning technique, to learn and predict the stochastic behavior of targets of guided missiles using trajectory data. The trained model predicts the distribution of future target positions based on initial conditions and parameters of the dynamics. Samples from this distribution are clustered using a time series k-means algorithm to generate representative trajectories, termed virtual targets. The method is fast and target-agnostic, requiring only training data in the form of target trajectories. Thus, it serves as a drop-in replacement for deterministic trajectory predictions in guidance laws and path planning. Simulated scenarios demonstrate the approach's effectiveness for aerial vehicles with random maneuvers, bridging the gap between deterministic predictions and stochastic reality, advancing guidance and control algorithms for autonomous vehicles.

@article{schneider2025_2504.01851,
  title={ Virtual Target Trajectory Prediction for Stochastic Targets },
  author={ Marc Schneider and Renato Loureiro and Torbjørn Cunis and Walter Fichter },
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.01851},
  year={ 2025 }
}