MF-LLM: Simulating Collective Decision Dynamics via a Mean-Field Large Language Model Framework

Simulating collective decision-making involves more than aggregating individual behaviors; it arises from dynamic interactions among individuals. While large language models (LLMs) show promise for social simulation, existing approaches often exhibit deviations from real-world data. To address this gap, we propose the Mean-Field LLM (MF-LLM) framework, which explicitly models the feedback loop between micro-level decisions and macro-level population. MF-LLM alternates between two models: a policy model that generates individual actions based on personal states and group-level information, and a mean field model that updates the population distribution from the latest individual decisions. Together, they produce rollouts that simulate the evolving trajectories of collective decision-making. To better match real-world data, we introduce IB-Tune, a fine-tuning method for LLMs grounded in the information bottleneck principle, which maximizes the relevance of population distributions to future actions while minimizing redundancy with historical data. We evaluate MF-LLM on a real-world social dataset, where it reduces KL divergence to human population distributions by 47 percent over non-mean-field baselines, and enables accurate trend forecasting and intervention planning. It generalizes across seven domains and four LLM backbones, providing a scalable foundation for high-fidelity social simulation.

@article{mi2025_2504.21582,
  title={ MF-LLM: Simulating Collective Decision Dynamics via a Mean-Field Large Language Model Framework },
  author={ Qirui Mi and Mengyue Yang and Xiangning Yu and Zhiyu Zhao and Cheng Deng and Bo An and Haifeng Zhang and Xu Chen and Jun Wang },
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2504.21582},
  year={ 2025 }
}