Enhancing Obsolescence Forecasting with Deep Generative Data Augmentation: A Semi-Supervised Framework for Low-Data Industrial Applications

The challenge of electronic component obsolescence is particularly critical in systems with long life cycles. Various obsolescence management methods are employed to mitigate its impact, with obsolescence forecasting being a highly sought-after and prominent approach. As a result, numerous machine learning-based forecasting methods have been proposed. However, machine learning models require a substantial amount of relevant data to achieve high precision, which is lacking in the current obsolescence landscape in some situations. This work introduces a novel framework for obsolescence forecasting based on deep learning. The proposed framework solves the lack of available data through deep generative modeling, where new obsolescence cases are generated and used to augment the training dataset. The augmented dataset is then used to train a classical machine learning-based obsolescence forecasting model. To train classical forecasting models using augmented datasets, existing classical supervised-learning classifiers are adapted for semi-supervised learning within this framework. The proposed framework demonstrates state-of-the-art results on benchmarking datasets.

@article{saad2025_2505.01261,
  title={ Enhancing Obsolescence Forecasting with Deep Generative Data Augmentation: A Semi-Supervised Framework for Low-Data Industrial Applications },
  author={ Elie Saad and Mariem Besbes and Marc Zolghadri and Victor Czmil and Claude Baron and Vincent Bourgeois },
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2505.01261},
  year={ 2025 }
}