From tests to effect sizes: Quantifying uncertainty and statistical variability in multilingual and multitask NLP evaluation benchmarks

In this paper, we introduce a set of resampling-based methods for quantifying uncertainty and statistical precision of evaluation metrics in multilingual and/or multitask NLP benchmarks. We show how experimental variation in performance scores arises from both model- and data-related sources, and that accounting for both of them is necessary to avoid substantially underestimating the overall variability over hypothetical replications. Using multilingual question answering, machine translation, and named entity recognition as example tasks, we also demonstrate how resampling methods are useful for computing sampling distributions for various quantities used in leaderboards such as the average/median, pairwise differences between models, and rankings.