DEBATE: A Large-Scale Benchmark for Evaluating Opinion Dynamics in Role-Playing LLM Agents

Accurately modeling opinion change through social interactions is crucial for understanding and mitigating polarization, misinformation, and societal conflict. Recent work simulates opinion dynamics with role-playing LLM agents (RPLAs), but multi-agent simulations often display unnatural group behavior (e.g., premature convergence) and lack empirical benchmarks for assessing alignment with real human group interactions. We introduce DEBATE, a large-scale benchmark for evaluating the authenticity of opinion dynamics in multi-agent RPLA simulations. DEBATE contains 36,383 messages from 2,832 U.S.-based participants across 708 groups and 107 topics, with both public messages and private Likert-scale beliefs, enabling evaluation at the utterance and group levels (and supporting future individual-level analyses). We instantiate "digital twin" RPLAs with seven LLMs and evaluate across two settings: next-message prediction and full conversation rollout, using stance-alignment and opinion-convergence metrics. In zero-shot settings, RPLA groups exhibit strong opinion convergence relative to human groups. Post-training via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) improves stance alignment and brings group-level convergence closer to human behavior, though discrepancies in opinion change and belief updating remain. DEBATE enables rigorous benchmarking of simulated opinion dynamics and supports future research on aligning multi-agent RPLAs with realistic human interactions.