The Spectral Dimension of NTKs is Constant: A Theory of Implicit Regularization, Finite-Width Stability, and Scalable Estimation

Modern deep networks are heavily overparameterized yet often generalize well, suggesting a form of low intrinsic complexity not reflected by parameter counts. We study this complexity at initialization through the effective rank of the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) Gram matrix, $r_{\text{eff}}(K) = (\text{tr}(K))^2/\|K\|_F^2$. For i.i.d. data and the infinite-width NTK $k$, we prove a constant-limit law $\lim_{n\to\infty} \mathbb{E}[r_{\text{eff}}(K_n)] = \mathbb{E}[k(x, x)]^2 / \mathbb{E}[k(x, x')^2] =: r_\infty$, with sub-Gaussian concentration. We further establish finite-width stability: if the finite-width NTK deviates in operator norm by $O_p(m^{-1/2})$ (width $m$), then $r_{\text{eff}}$ changes by $O_p(m^{-1/2})$. We design a scalable estimator using random output probes and a CountSketch of parameter Jacobians and prove conditional unbiasedness and consistency with explicit variance bounds. On CIFAR-10 with ResNet-20/56 (widths 16/32) across $n \in \{10^3, 5\times10^3, 10^4, 2.5\times10^4, 5\times10^4\}$, we observe $r_{\text{eff}} \approx 1.0\text{--}1.3$ and slopes $\approx 0$ in $n$, consistent with the theory, and the kernel-moment prediction closely matches fitted constants.