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Conformal Blindness: A Note on AA-Cryptic change-points

Johan Hallberg Szabadváry
Main:11 Pages
4 Figures
Appendix:2 Pages
Abstract

Conformal Test Martingales (CTMs) are a standard method within the Conformal Prediction framework for testing the crucial assumption of data exchangeability by monitoring deviations from uniformity in the p-value sequence. Although exchangeability implies uniform p-values, the converse does not hold. This raises the question of whether a significant break in exchangeability can occur, such that the p-values remain uniform, rendering CTMs blind. We answer this affirmatively, demonstrating the phenomenon of \emph{conformal blindness}.

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