Reliable Grid Forecasting: State Space Models for Safety-Critical Energy Systems

Accurate grid load forecasting is safety-critical: under-predictions risk supply shortfalls, while symmetric error metrics can mask this operational asymmetry. We introduce an operator-legible evaluation framework -- Under-Prediction Rate (UPR), tail Reserve$_{99.5}^{\%}$ requirements, and explicit inflation diagnostics (Bias$_{24h}$/OPR) -- to quantify one-sided reliability risk beyond MAPE.