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Adaptive estimation of the copula correlation matrix for semiparametric elliptical copulas

Abstract

We study the adaptive estimation of copula correlation matrix Σ\Sigma for elliptical copulas. In this context, the correlations are connected to Kendall's tau through a sine function transformation. Hence, a natural estimate for Σ\Sigma is the plug-in estimator Σ^\widehat\Sigma with Kendall's tau statistic. We first obtain a sharp bound for the operator norm of Σ^Σ\widehat \Sigma - \Sigma. Then, we study a factor model for Σ\Sigma, for which we propose a refined estimator Σ~\widetilde\Sigma by fitting a low-rank matrix plus a diagonal matrix to Σ^\widehat\Sigma using least squares with a nuclear norm penalty on the low-rank matrix. The bound for the operator norm of Σ^Σ\widehat \Sigma - \Sigma serves to scale the penalty term, and we obtain finite sample oracle inequalities for Σ~\widetilde\Sigma. We also consider an elementary factor model of Σ\Sigma, for which we propose closed-form estimators. We provide data-driven versions for all our estimation procedures and performance bounds.

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