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Generalized Exponential smoothing in prediction of hierarchical time series

7 December 2016
D. Kosiorowski
D. Mielczarek
J. Rydlewski
Małgorzata Snarska
    AI4TS
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Abstract

Shang and Hyndman (2016) proposed grouped functional time series forecasting approach as a combination of individual forecasts using generalized least squares regression. We modify their methodology using generalized exponential smoothing technique for the most disaggregated series in order to obtain more robust predictor. We show some properties of our proposals using simulations and real data related to electricity demand prediction.

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