Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament

17 October 2023

Papers citing "Large Language Model Prediction Capabilities: Evidence from a Real-World Forecasting Tournament"

5 / 5 papers shown

Title
Hybrid Forecasting of Geopolitical Events Daniel M. Benjamin Fred Morstatter Ali E. Abbas A. Abeliuk P. Atanasov ... R. Sosič Mark Steyvers Pedro A. Szekely Michael D. Ward Aram Galstyan 70 10 0 14 Dec 2024
ForecastBench: A Dynamic Benchmark of AI Forecasting Capabilities Ezra Karger Houtan Bastani Chen Yueh-Han Zachary Jacobs Danny Halawi Fred Zhang P. Tetlock 33 6 0 30 Sep 2024
Wisdom of the Silicon Crowd: LLM Ensemble Prediction Capabilities Rival Human Crowd Accuracy P. Schoenegger Indre Tuminauskaite Peter S. Park Rafael Valdece Sousa Bastos P. Tetlock 29 24 0 29 Feb 2024
Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4 Sébastien Bubeck Varun Chandrasekaran Ronen Eldan J. Gehrke Eric Horvitz ... Scott M. Lundberg Harsha Nori Hamid Palangi Marco Tulio Ribeiro Yi Zhang ELM AI4MH AI4CE ALM 233 2,989 0 22 Mar 2023
Fine-Tuning Language Models from Human Preferences Daniel M. Ziegler Nisan Stiennon Jeff Wu Tom B. Brown Alec Radford Dario Amodei Paul Christiano G. Irving ALM 275 1,583 0 18 Sep 2019