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A statistical theory of cold posteriors in deep neural networks
v1v2 (latest)

A statistical theory of cold posteriors in deep neural networks

13 August 2020
Laurence Aitchison
    UQCVBDL
ArXiv (abs)PDFHTML

Papers citing "A statistical theory of cold posteriors in deep neural networks"

49 / 49 papers shown
Title
Addressing the Inconsistency in Bayesian Deep Learning via Generalized Laplace Approximation
Addressing the Inconsistency in Bayesian Deep Learning via Generalized Laplace Approximation
Yinsong Chen
Samson S. Yu
Zhong Li
Chee Peng Lim
BDL
78
0
0
01 Jul 2025
Textual Bayes: Quantifying Uncertainty in LLM-Based Systems
Textual Bayes: Quantifying Uncertainty in LLM-Based Systems
Brendan Leigh Ross
Noël Vouitsis
Atiyeh Ashari Ghomi
Rasa Hosseinzadeh
Ji Xin
...
Yi Sui
Shiyi Hou
Kin Kwan Leung
Gabriel Loaiza-Ganem
Jesse C. Cresswell
49
0
0
11 Jun 2025
Are vision language models robust to uncertain inputs?
Are vision language models robust to uncertain inputs?
Xi Wang
Eric Nalisnick
AAMLVLM
Presented at ResearchTrend Connect | VLM on 18 Jun 2025
140
1
0
17 May 2025
Humble your Overconfident Networks: Unlearning Overfitting via Sequential Monte Carlo Tempered Deep Ensembles
Humble your Overconfident Networks: Unlearning Overfitting via Sequential Monte Carlo Tempered Deep Ensembles
Andrew Millard
Zheng Zhao
Joshua Murphy
Simon Maskell
UQCVBDL
118
0
0
16 May 2025
A Weighted-likelihood framework for class imbalance in Bayesian prediction models
A Weighted-likelihood framework for class imbalance in Bayesian prediction models
Stanley E. Lazic
82
0
0
23 Apr 2025
Learning Hyperparameters via a Data-Emphasized Variational Objective
Learning Hyperparameters via a Data-Emphasized Variational Objective
Ethan Harvey
Mikhail Petrov
Michael C. Hughes
109
0
0
03 Feb 2025
Diffusion Priors for Variational Likelihood Estimation and Image
  Denoising
Diffusion Priors for Variational Likelihood Estimation and Image Denoising
Jun Cheng
Shan Tan
DiffM
104
0
0
23 Oct 2024
Temperature Optimization for Bayesian Deep Learning
Temperature Optimization for Bayesian Deep Learning
Kenyon Ng
Chris van der Heide
Liam Hodgkinson
Susan Wei
BDL
109
0
0
08 Oct 2024
Predictive performance of power posteriors
Predictive performance of power posteriors
Yann McLatchie
Edwin Fong
David T. Frazier
Jeremias Knoblauch
56
2
0
16 Aug 2024
Scalable Bayesian Learning with posteriors
Scalable Bayesian Learning with posteriors
Samuel Duffield
Kaelan Donatella
Johnathan Chiu
Phoebe Klett
Daniel Simpson
BDLUQCV
173
2
0
31 May 2024
Making Better Use of Unlabelled Data in Bayesian Active Learning
Making Better Use of Unlabelled Data in Bayesian Active Learning
Freddie Bickford-Smith
Adam Foster
Tom Rainforth
97
4
0
26 Apr 2024
Variational Bayesian Last Layers
Variational Bayesian Last Layers
James Harrison
John Willes
Jasper Snoek
BDLUQCV
141
34
0
17 Apr 2024
On Uncertainty Quantification for Near-Bayes Optimal Algorithms
On Uncertainty Quantification for Near-Bayes Optimal Algorithms
Ziyu Wang
Chris Holmes
UQCV
97
3
0
28 Mar 2024
Can a Confident Prior Replace a Cold Posterior?
Can a Confident Prior Replace a Cold Posterior?
Martin Marek
Brooks Paige
Pavel Izmailov
UQCVBDL
61
4
0
02 Mar 2024
Position: Bayesian Deep Learning is Needed in the Age of Large-Scale AI
Position: Bayesian Deep Learning is Needed in the Age of Large-Scale AI
Theodore Papamarkou
Maria Skoularidou
Konstantina Palla
Laurence Aitchison
Julyan Arbel
...
David Rügamer
Yee Whye Teh
Max Welling
Andrew Gordon Wilson
Ruqi Zhang
UQCVBDL
131
35
0
01 Feb 2024
Uncertainty-aware Surrogate Models for Airfoil Flow Simulations with
  Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models
Uncertainty-aware Surrogate Models for Airfoil Flow Simulations with Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models
Qiang Liu
Nils Thuerey
DiffMAI4CE
65
16
0
08 Dec 2023
If there is no underfitting, there is no Cold Posterior Effect
If there is no underfitting, there is no Cold Posterior Effect
Yijie Zhang
Yi-Shan Wu
Luis A. Ortega
A. Masegosa
UQCV
61
1
0
02 Oct 2023
A Primer on Bayesian Neural Networks: Review and Debates
A Primer on Bayesian Neural Networks: Review and Debates
Federico Danieli
Konstantinos Pitas
M. Vladimirova
Vincent Fortuin
BDLAAML
103
20
0
28 Sep 2023
The fine print on tempered posteriors
The fine print on tempered posteriors
Konstantinos Pitas
Julyan Arbel
63
1
0
11 Sep 2023
Function-Space Regularization for Deep Bayesian Classification
Function-Space Regularization for Deep Bayesian Classification
J. Lin
Joe Watson
Pascal Klink
Jan Peters
UQCVBDL
66
1
0
12 Jul 2023
Non-reversible Parallel Tempering for Deep Posterior Approximation
Non-reversible Parallel Tempering for Deep Posterior Approximation
Wei Deng
Qian Zhang
Qi Feng
F. Liang
Guang Lin
64
4
0
20 Nov 2022
Monotonicity and Double Descent in Uncertainty Estimation with Gaussian
  Processes
Monotonicity and Double Descent in Uncertainty Estimation with Gaussian Processes
Liam Hodgkinson
Christopher van der Heide
Fred Roosta
Michael W. Mahoney
UQCV
65
6
0
14 Oct 2022
Identify ambiguous tasks combining crowdsourced labels by weighting
  Areas Under the Margin
Identify ambiguous tasks combining crowdsourced labels by weighting Areas Under the Margin
Tanguy Lefort
Benjamin Charlier
Alexis Joly
Joseph Salmon
73
5
0
30 Sep 2022
Robustness to corruption in pre-trained Bayesian neural networks
Robustness to corruption in pre-trained Bayesian neural networks
Xi Wang
Laurence Aitchison
OODUQCV
54
5
0
24 Jun 2022
Cold Posteriors through PAC-Bayes
Cold Posteriors through PAC-Bayes
Konstantinos Pitas
Julyan Arbel
89
5
0
22 Jun 2022
How Tempering Fixes Data Augmentation in Bayesian Neural Networks
How Tempering Fixes Data Augmentation in Bayesian Neural Networks
Gregor Bachmann
Lorenzo Noci
Thomas Hofmann
BDLAAML
125
9
0
27 May 2022
On Uncertainty, Tempering, and Data Augmentation in Bayesian
  Classification
On Uncertainty, Tempering, and Data Augmentation in Bayesian Classification
Sanyam Kapoor
Wesley J. Maddox
Pavel Izmailov
A. Wilson
BDLUD
92
51
0
30 Mar 2022
UncertaINR: Uncertainty Quantification of End-to-End Implicit Neural
  Representations for Computed Tomography
UncertaINR: Uncertainty Quantification of End-to-End Implicit Neural Representations for Computed Tomography
Francisca Vasconcelos
Bobby He
Nalini Singh
Yee Whye Teh
BDLOODUQCV
69
13
0
22 Feb 2022
Interacting Contour Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics
Interacting Contour Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics
Wei Deng
Siqi Liang
Botao Hao
Guang Lin
F. Liang
BDL
79
10
0
20 Feb 2022
Theoretical characterization of uncertainty in high-dimensional linear
  classification
Theoretical characterization of uncertainty in high-dimensional linear classification
Lucas Clarté
Bruno Loureiro
Florent Krzakala
Lenka Zdeborová
78
21
0
07 Feb 2022
Posterior temperature optimized Bayesian models for inverse problems in
  medical imaging
Posterior temperature optimized Bayesian models for inverse problems in medical imaging
M. Laves
Malte Tolle
Alexander Schlaefer
Sandy Engelhardt
76
10
0
02 Feb 2022
How Infinitely Wide Neural Networks Can Benefit from Multi-task Learning
  -- an Exact Macroscopic Characterization
How Infinitely Wide Neural Networks Can Benefit from Multi-task Learning -- an Exact Macroscopic Characterization
Jakob Heiss
Josef Teichmann
Hanna Wutte
MLT
53
2
0
31 Dec 2021
Weight Pruning and Uncertainty in Radio Galaxy Classification
Weight Pruning and Uncertainty in Radio Galaxy Classification
Devina Mohan
A. Scaife
UQCV
73
0
0
23 Nov 2021
Dense Uncertainty Estimation via an Ensemble-based Conditional Latent
  Variable Model
Dense Uncertainty Estimation via an Ensemble-based Conditional Latent Variable Model
Jing Zhang
Yuchao Dai
Mehrtash Harandi
Yiran Zhong
Nick Barnes
Leonid Sigal
UQCV
60
1
0
22 Nov 2021
Periodic Activation Functions Induce Stationarity
Periodic Activation Functions Induce Stationarity
Lassi Meronen
Martin Trapp
Arno Solin
BDL
84
21
0
26 Oct 2021
Bayesian neural network unit priors and generalized Weibull-tail
  property
Bayesian neural network unit priors and generalized Weibull-tail property
M. Vladimirova
Julyan Arbel
Stéphane Girard
BDL
84
9
0
06 Oct 2021
Deep Classifiers with Label Noise Modeling and Distance Awareness
Deep Classifiers with Label Noise Modeling and Distance Awareness
Vincent Fortuin
Mark Collier
F. Wenzel
J. Allingham
J. Liu
Dustin Tran
Balaji Lakshminarayanan
Jesse Berent
Rodolphe Jenatton
E. Kokiopoulou
UQCV
71
11
0
06 Oct 2021
Non-asymptotic estimates for TUSLA algorithm for non-convex learning
  with applications to neural networks with ReLU activation function
Non-asymptotic estimates for TUSLA algorithm for non-convex learning with applications to neural networks with ReLU activation function
Dongjae Lim
Ariel Neufeld
Sotirios Sabanis
Ying Zhang
80
20
0
19 Jul 2021
Disentangling the Roles of Curation, Data-Augmentation and the Prior in
  the Cold Posterior Effect
Disentangling the Roles of Curation, Data-Augmentation and the Prior in the Cold Posterior Effect
Lorenzo Noci
Kevin Roth
Gregor Bachmann
Sebastian Nowozin
Thomas Hofmann
CML
77
26
0
11 Jun 2021
Posterior Temperature Optimization in Variational Inference for Inverse
  Problems
Posterior Temperature Optimization in Variational Inference for Inverse Problems
M. Laves
Malte Tolle
Alexander Schlaefer
Sandy Engelhardt
92
3
0
11 Jun 2021
Model Selection for Bayesian Autoencoders
Model Selection for Bayesian Autoencoders
Ba-Hien Tran
Simone Rossi
Dimitrios Milios
Pietro Michiardi
Edwin V. Bonilla
Maurizio Filippone
BDL
79
13
0
11 Jun 2021
Data augmentation in Bayesian neural networks and the cold posterior
  effect
Data augmentation in Bayesian neural networks and the cold posterior effect
Seth Nabarro
Stoil Ganev
Adrià Garriga-Alonso
Vincent Fortuin
Mark van der Wilk
Laurence Aitchison
BDL
83
41
0
10 Jun 2021
Polygonal Unadjusted Langevin Algorithms: Creating stable and efficient
  adaptive algorithms for neural networks
Polygonal Unadjusted Langevin Algorithms: Creating stable and efficient adaptive algorithms for neural networks
Dong-Young Lim
Sotirios Sabanis
95
12
0
28 May 2021
What Are Bayesian Neural Network Posteriors Really Like?
What Are Bayesian Neural Network Posteriors Really Like?
Pavel Izmailov
Sharad Vikram
Matthew D. Hoffman
A. Wilson
UQCVBDL
81
388
0
29 Apr 2021
Bayesian OOD detection with aleatoric uncertainty and outlier exposure
Bayesian OOD detection with aleatoric uncertainty and outlier exposure
Xi Wang
Laurence Aitchison
UD
72
15
0
24 Feb 2021
Bayesian Neural Network Priors Revisited
Bayesian Neural Network Priors Revisited
Vincent Fortuin
Adrià Garriga-Alonso
Sebastian W. Ober
F. Wenzel
Gunnar Rätsch
Richard Turner
Mark van der Wilk
Laurence Aitchison
BDLUQCV
133
141
0
12 Feb 2021
Variational Laplace for Bayesian neural networks
Variational Laplace for Bayesian neural networks
Ali Unlu
Laurence Aitchison
UQCVBDL
30
0
0
20 Nov 2020
Semi-supervised learning objectives as log-likelihoods in a generative
  model of data curation
Semi-supervised learning objectives as log-likelihoods in a generative model of data curation
Stoil Ganev
Laurence Aitchison
31
4
0
13 Aug 2020
Global inducing point variational posteriors for Bayesian neural
  networks and deep Gaussian processes
Global inducing point variational posteriors for Bayesian neural networks and deep Gaussian processes
Sebastian W. Ober
Laurence Aitchison
BDL
112
60
0
17 May 2020
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