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Uncertainty Decomposition

UD
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Investigates methods to break down predictive uncertainty into components, such as aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.

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50 / 173 papers shown
Title
A Generalized Bias-Variance Decomposition for Bregman Divergences
A Generalized Bias-Variance Decomposition for Bregman Divergences
David Pfau
UD
52
20
0
11 Nov 2025
Physics-Guided Machine Learning for Uncertainty Quantification in Turbulence Models
Physics-Guided Machine Learning for Uncertainty Quantification in Turbulence Models
Minghan Chu
Weicheng Qian
UD
80
0
0
07 Nov 2025
Measuring Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in LLMs: Empirical Evaluation on ID and OOD QA Tasks
Measuring Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in LLMs: Empirical Evaluation on ID and OOD QA Tasks
Kevin Wang
Subre Abdoul Moktar
Jia Li
Kangshuo Li
Feng Chen
UD
100
0
0
05 Nov 2025
Bayesian Neural Networks vs. Mixture Density Networks: Theoretical and Empirical Insights for Uncertainty-Aware Nonlinear Modeling
Bayesian Neural Networks vs. Mixture Density Networks: Theoretical and Empirical Insights for Uncertainty-Aware Nonlinear Modeling
R. Ghosh
Ian Barnett
BDLUD
185
0
0
28 Oct 2025
Frequentist Validity of Epistemic Uncertainty Estimators
Frequentist Validity of Epistemic Uncertainty Estimators
Anchit Jain
Stephen Bates
UDUQCVPER
133
0
0
24 Oct 2025
Uncertainty in Machine Learning
Uncertainty in Machine Learning
Hans Weytjens
Wouter Verbeke
UD
109
0
0
07 Oct 2025
Quantifying Ambiguity in Categorical Annotations: A Measure and Statistical Inference Framework
Quantifying Ambiguity in Categorical Annotations: A Measure and Statistical Inference Framework
Christopher Klugmann
Daniel Kondermann
UD
107
0
0
05 Oct 2025
Fine-Grained Uncertainty Decomposition in Large Language Models: A Spectral Approach
Fine-Grained Uncertainty Decomposition in Large Language Models: A Spectral Approach
Nassim Walha
Sebastian G. Gruber
Thomas Decker
Yinchong Yang
Alireza Javanmardi
Eyke Hüllermeier
Florian Buettner
UQCVUDPER
140
0
0
26 Sep 2025
System-Level Uncertainty Quantification with Multiple Machine Learning Models: A Theoretical Framework
System-Level Uncertainty Quantification with Multiple Machine Learning Models: A Theoretical Framework
Xiaoping Du
UD
68
0
0
20 Sep 2025
Uncertainty Estimation using Variance-Gated Distributions
Uncertainty Estimation using Variance-Gated Distributions
H. Martin Gillis
Isaac Xu
Thomas Trappenberg
UQCVPERUD
131
0
0
07 Sep 2025
Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Machine Learning Models: Theory, Methods, and Insights
Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Machine Learning Models: Theory, Methods, and Insights
Marzieh Ajirak
Anand Ravishankar
Petar M. Djurić
UDPER
168
0
0
07 Sep 2025
When three experiments are better than two: Avoiding intractable correlated aleatoric uncertainty by leveraging a novel bias--variance tradeoff
When three experiments are better than two: Avoiding intractable correlated aleatoric uncertainty by leveraging a novel bias--variance tradeoff
P. Scherer
Andreas Kirsch
J. Taylor-King
UD
97
0
0
04 Sep 2025
Variational Uncertainty Decomposition for In-Context Learning
Variational Uncertainty Decomposition for In-Context Learning
I. Shavindra Jayasekera
Jacob Si
Filippo Valdettaro
Wenlong Chen
Aldo A. Faisal
Yingzhen Li
BDLUQCVUDPER
192
0
0
02 Sep 2025
Uncertainty-Aware PCA for Arbitrarily Distributed Data Modeled by Gaussian Mixture Models
Uncertainty-Aware PCA for Arbitrarily Distributed Data Modeled by Gaussian Mixture Models
Daniel Klotzl
Ozan Tastekin
David Hägele
Marina Evers
Daniel Weiskopf
UD
90
0
0
19 Aug 2025
UbiQTree: Uncertainty Quantification in XAI with Tree Ensembles
UbiQTree: Uncertainty Quantification in XAI with Tree Ensembles
Akshat Dubey
Aleksandar Anžel
Bahar İlgen
Georges Hattab
FAttUD
144
0
0
13 Aug 2025
Efficient Uncertainty in LLMs through Evidential Knowledge Distillation
Efficient Uncertainty in LLMs through Evidential Knowledge Distillation
Lakshmana Sri Harsha Nemani
P.K. Srijith
Tomasz Kuśmierczyk
UQCVEDLUD
144
0
0
24 Jul 2025
Robust Explanations Through Uncertainty Decomposition: A Path to Trustworthier AI
Robust Explanations Through Uncertainty Decomposition: A Path to Trustworthier AI
Chenrui Zhu
Louenas Bounia
Vu Linh Nguyen
Sébastien Destercke
Arthur Hoarau
UDUQCVPER
79
0
0
17 Jul 2025
CLEAR: Calibrated Learning for Epistemic and Aleatoric Risk
CLEAR: Calibrated Learning for Epistemic and Aleatoric Risk
Ilia Azizi
Juraj Bodik
Jakob Heiss
Bin Yu
UQCVUD
209
2
0
10 Jul 2025
Disentangling Doubt in Deep Causal AI
Disentangling Doubt in Deep Causal AI
Cooper Doyle
OODUQCVCMLUD
59
0
0
04 Jul 2025
Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Measures for Ordinal Classification through Binary Reduction
Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty Measures for Ordinal Classification through Binary Reduction
Stefan Haas
Eyke Hüllermeier
UQCVUDPER
89
1
0
01 Jul 2025
Why Machine Learning Models Fail to Fully Capture Epistemic Uncertainty
Why Machine Learning Models Fail to Fully Capture Epistemic Uncertainty
Sebastián Jiménez
Mira Jürgens
Willem Waegeman
UDPER
300
2
0
29 May 2025
Uncertainty Profiles for LLMs: Uncertainty Source Decomposition and Adaptive Model-Metric Selection
Uncertainty Profiles for LLMs: Uncertainty Source Decomposition and Adaptive Model-Metric Selection
Pei-Fu Guo
Yun-Da Tsai
Shou-De Lin
UD
191
1
0
12 May 2025
Uncertainty in Repeated Implicit Feedback as a Measure of Reliability
Uncertainty in Repeated Implicit Feedback as a Measure of ReliabilityUser Modeling, Adaptation, and Personalization (UMAP), 2025
Bruno Sguerra
V. Tran
Romain Hennequin
Manuel Moussallam
UD
204
2
0
05 May 2025
Cooperative Bayesian and variance networks disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties
Cooperative Bayesian and variance networks disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties
Jiaxiang Yi
Miguel A. Bessa
UDPERUQCV
225
0
0
05 May 2025
Epistemic Wrapping for Uncertainty Quantification
Epistemic Wrapping for Uncertainty Quantification
Maryam Sultana
Neil Yorke-Smith
Kaizheng Wang
Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal
Muhammad Mubashar
Fabio Cuzzolin
UQCVBDLUD
201
1
0
04 May 2025
An Axiomatic Assessment of Entropy- and Variance-based Uncertainty Quantification in Regression
An Axiomatic Assessment of Entropy- and Variance-based Uncertainty Quantification in Regression
Christopher Bülte
Yusuf Sale
Timo Löhr
Paul Hofman
Gitta Kutyniok
Eyke Hüllermeier
UD
275
6
0
25 Apr 2025
Measuring and Analyzing Subjective Uncertainty in Scientific Communications
Measuring and Analyzing Subjective Uncertainty in Scientific Communications
Jamshid Sourati
Grace Shao
UD
116
0
0
27 Mar 2025
A decision-theoretic approach to dealing with uncertainty in quantum mechanics
A decision-theoretic approach to dealing with uncertainty in quantum mechanics
Keano De Vos
G. Cooman
Alexander Erreygers
Jasper De Bock
UD
214
0
0
26 Mar 2025
Disentangling Uncertainties by Learning Compressed Data Representation
Disentangling Uncertainties by Learning Compressed Data RepresentationConference on Learning for Dynamics & Control (L4DC), 2025
Zhiyu An
Zhibo Hou
Wan Du
UQCVUD
202
1
0
20 Mar 2025
Do you understand epistemic uncertainty? Think again! Rigorous frequentist epistemic uncertainty estimation in regression
Do you understand epistemic uncertainty? Think again! Rigorous frequentist epistemic uncertainty estimation in regression
Enrico Foglia
Benjamin Bobbia
Nikita Durasov
Michaël Bauerheim
Pascal Fua
S. Moreau
Thierry Jardin
UQCVUDPER
222
0
0
17 Mar 2025
Conceptualizing Uncertainty: A Concept-based Approach to Explaining Uncertainty
Conceptualizing Uncertainty: A Concept-based Approach to Explaining Uncertainty
Isaac Roberts
Alexander Schulz
Sarah Schroeder
Fabian Hinder
Barbara Hammer
UD
255
0
0
05 Mar 2025
Active operator learning with predictive uncertainty quantification for partial differential equations
Nick Winovich
Mitchell Daneker
Lu Lu
Guang Lin
UQCVUD
155
3
0
05 Mar 2025
Logit Disagreement: OoD Detection with Bayesian Neural Networks
Logit Disagreement: OoD Detection with Bayesian Neural Networks
Kevin Raina
UQCVBDLUDPER
255
1
0
24 Feb 2025
Reducing Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty through Multi-modal Data Acquisition
Reducing Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty through Multi-modal Data Acquisition
Arthur Hoarau
Benjamin Quost
Sébastien Destercke
Willem Waegeman
UQCVUDPER
256
3
0
30 Jan 2025
Bias-variance decompositions: the exclusive privilege of Bregman divergences
Bias-variance decompositions: the exclusive privilege of Bregman divergences
Tom Heskes
UD
219
2
0
30 Jan 2025
Can Bayesian Neural Networks Explicitly Model Input Uncertainty?
Can Bayesian Neural Networks Explicitly Model Input Uncertainty?
Matias Valdenegro-Toro
Marco Zullich
BDLPERUQCVUD
772
0
0
14 Jan 2025
From Aleatoric to Epistemic: Exploring Uncertainty Quantification Techniques in Artificial Intelligence
From Aleatoric to Epistemic: Exploring Uncertainty Quantification Techniques in Artificial Intelligence
Tianyang Wang
Longji Xu
Jun Zhou
Cheng Fei
Xinyuan Song
...
Ming Liu
Yujiao Shi
Cheng Fei
Cheng Fei
Lawrence K. Q. Yan
UD
184
11
0
08 Jan 2025
Bayesian Active Learning By Distribution Disagreement
Thorben Werner
Lars Schmidt-Thieme
UQCVUD
90
0
0
03 Jan 2025
Rethinking Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty
Rethinking Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty
Freddie Bickford-Smith
Jannik Kossen
Eleanor Trollope
Mark van der Wilk
Adam Foster
Tom Rainforth
UDPER
230
16
0
30 Dec 2024
Provable Uncertainty Decomposition via Higher-Order Calibration
Provable Uncertainty Decomposition via Higher-Order Calibration
Gustaf Ahdritz
Aravind Gollakota
Parikshit Gopalan
Charlotte Peale
Udi Wieder
UDUQCVPER
240
4
0
25 Dec 2024
Probabilistic Modeling of Disparity Uncertainty for Robust and Efficient Stereo Matching
Probabilistic Modeling of Disparity Uncertainty for Robust and Efficient Stereo Matching
Wenxiao Cai
Dongting Hu
Ruoyan Yin
Jiankang Deng
Huan Fu
Wankou Yang
Mingming Gong
UQCVUD
137
1
0
24 Dec 2024
Uncertainty separation via ensemble quantile regression
Uncertainty separation via ensemble quantile regression
Navid Ansari
Hans-Peter Seidel
Vahid Babaei
UDUQCV
261
0
0
18 Dec 2024
Improving Active Learning with a Bayesian Representation of Epistemic
  Uncertainty
Improving Active Learning with a Bayesian Representation of Epistemic Uncertainty
Jake Thomas
Jeremie Houssineau
UQCVUDPER
153
2
0
11 Dec 2024
Redesigning the ensemble Kalman filter with a dedicated model of
  epistemic uncertainty
Redesigning the ensemble Kalman filter with a dedicated model of epistemic uncertainty
Chatchuea Kimchaiwong
Jeremie Houssineau
Adam M. Johansen
UD
137
0
0
28 Nov 2024
DeepUQ: Assessing the Aleatoric Uncertainties from two Deep Learning
  Methods
DeepUQ: Assessing the Aleatoric Uncertainties from two Deep Learning Methods
Rebecca Nevin
A. Ćiprijanović
Brian D. Nord
UQCVUD
104
1
0
13 Nov 2024
Double-Bayesian Learning
Double-Bayesian Learning
Stefan Jaeger
BDLUD
92
0
0
16 Oct 2024
On Information-Theoretic Measures of Predictive Uncertainty
On Information-Theoretic Measures of Predictive UncertaintyConference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), 2024
Kajetan Schweighofer
L. Aichberger
Mykyta Ielanskyi
Sepp Hochreiter
UQCVUD
273
9
0
14 Oct 2024
(Un)certainty of (Un)fairness: Preference-Based Selection of Certainly
  Fair Decision-Makers
(Un)certainty of (Un)fairness: Preference-Based Selection of Certainly Fair Decision-MakersEuropean Conference on Artificial Intelligence (ECAI), 2024
Manh Khoi Duong
Stefan Conrad
UDFaML
159
0
0
19 Sep 2024
Uncertainty Decomposition and Error Margin Detection of Homodyned-K
  Distribution in Quantitative Ultrasound
Uncertainty Decomposition and Error Margin Detection of Homodyned-K Distribution in Quantitative Ultrasound
Dorsa Ameri
A. Tehrani
I. Rosado-Méndez
H. Rivaz
UDPERUQCV
81
0
0
17 Sep 2024
DEMAU: Decompose, Explore, Model and Analyse Uncertainties
DEMAU: Decompose, Explore, Model and Analyse Uncertainties
A. Hoarau
Vincent Lemaire
UQCVUDPER
121
0
0
12 Sep 2024
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