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Sub-seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep-learning weather
  prediction models

Sub-seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep-learning weather prediction models

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES), 2021
9 February 2021
Jonathan A. Weyn
Dale Durran
R. Caruana
Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay
    AI4Cl
ArXiv (abs)PDFHTML

Papers citing "Sub-seasonal forecasting with a large ensemble of deep-learning weather prediction models"

50 / 64 papers shown
Real-Time Long Horizon Air Quality Forecasting via Group-Relative Policy Optimization
Real-Time Long Horizon Air Quality Forecasting via Group-Relative Policy Optimization
Inha Kang
Eunki Kim
Wonjeong Ryu
Jaeyo Shin
Seungjun Yu
Yoon-Hee Kang
Seongeun Jeong
Eunhye Kim
Soontae Kim
Hyunjung Shim
115
0
0
27 Nov 2025
Interactive Atmospheric Composition Emulation for Next-Generation Earth System Models
Interactive Atmospheric Composition Emulation for Next-Generation Earth System Models
Seyed Mohammad Hassan Erfani
Kara D. Lamb
Susanne Bauer
Kostas Tsigaridis
M. Lier-Walqui
Gavin Schmidt
133
0
0
12 Oct 2025
AERIS: Argonne Earth Systems Model for Reliable and Skillful Predictions
AERIS: Argonne Earth Systems Model for Reliable and Skillful Predictions
Väinö Hatanpää
Eugene Ku
Jason Stock
M. Emani
Sam Foreman
...
Sam Wheeler
Huihuo Zheng
T. Arcomano
V. Vishwanath
R. Kotamarthi
267
4
0
16 Sep 2025
MAUSAM: An Observations-focused assessment of Global AI Weather Prediction Models During the South Asian Monsoon
MAUSAM: An Observations-focused assessment of Global AI Weather Prediction Models During the South Asian Monsoon
Aman Gupta
A. Sheshadri
Dhruv Suri
AI4Cl
315
2
0
02 Sep 2025
CERA: A Framework for Improved Generalization of Machine Learning Models to Changed Climates
CERA: A Framework for Improved Generalization of Machine Learning Models to Changed Climates
Shuchang Liu
Paul A. O'Gorman
OODAI4CE
116
2
0
15 Aug 2025
A machine learning model for skillful climate system prediction
A machine learning model for skillful climate system prediction
Chenguang Zhou
Lei Chen
Xiaohui Zhong
Bo Lu
Hao Li
...
Jie Wu
Jiahui Hu
Zesheng Dou
Pang-Chi Hsu
Xinming Zhang
AI4Cl
246
3
0
06 May 2025
Generative emulation of chaotic dynamics with coherent prior
Generative emulation of chaotic dynamics with coherent priorComputer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering (CMAME), 2025
Juan Nathaniel
Pierre Gentine
AI4TSAI4CE
324
7
0
19 Apr 2025
Deep Learning Meets Teleconnections: Improving S2S Predictions for European Winter Weather
Deep Learning Meets Teleconnections: Improving S2S Predictions for European Winter Weather
P. Bommer
M. Kretschmer
Fiona R. Spuler
Kirill Bykov
Marina M.-C. Höhne
AI4Cl
311
6
0
10 Apr 2025
CirT: Global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting with Geometry-inspired Transformer
CirT: Global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting with Geometry-inspired TransformerInternational Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), 2025
Yang Liu
Zinan Zheng
Jiashun Cheng
Fugee Tsung
Deli Zhao
Yu Rong
Jiajun Li
316
16
0
27 Feb 2025
Advancing Heatwave Forecasting via Distribution Informed-Graph Neural
  Networks (DI-GNNs): Integrating Extreme Value Theory with GNNs
Advancing Heatwave Forecasting via Distribution Informed-Graph Neural Networks (DI-GNNs): Integrating Extreme Value Theory with GNNs
Farrukh A. Chishtie
Dominique Brunet
Rachel H. White
Daniel Michelson
Jing Jiang
...
Timothy Chui
Rana Usman Ali
Mujtaba Hassan
Roland Stull
David Hudak
269
1
0
20 Nov 2024
Mitigating Time Discretization Challenges with WeatherODE: A Sandwich
  Physics-Driven Neural ODE for Weather Forecasting
Mitigating Time Discretization Challenges with WeatherODE: A Sandwich Physics-Driven Neural ODE for Weather Forecasting
Peiyuan Liu
Tian Zhou
Liang Sun
Rong Jin
AI4CE
228
4
0
09 Oct 2024
Continuous Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion models
Continuous Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion modelsInternational Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), 2024
Martin Andrae
Tomas Landelius
Joel Oskarsson
Fredrik Lindsten
AI4Cl
501
19
0
07 Oct 2024
Robustness of AI-based weather forecasts in a changing climate
Robustness of AI-based weather forecasts in a changing climate
Thomas Rackow
Nikolay Koldunov
Christian Lessig
Irina Sandu
Mihai Alexe
...
Jesper Dramsch
Florian Pappenberger
Xabier Pedruzo-Bagazgoitia
Steffen Tietsche
Thomas Jung
AI4ClAI4CEOOD
332
15
0
27 Sep 2024
Prithvi WxC: Foundation Model for Weather and Climate
Prithvi WxC: Foundation Model for Weather and Climate
J. Schmude
Sujit Roy
Will Trojak
Johannes Jakubik
Daniel Salles Civitarese
...
Campbell Watson
M. Maskey
Tsengdar J Lee
Juan Bernabé-Moreno
Rahul Ramachandran
VLMAI4Cl
355
31
0
20 Sep 2024
WeatherReal: A Benchmark Based on In-Situ Observations for Evaluating
  Weather Models
WeatherReal: A Benchmark Based on In-Situ Observations for Evaluating Weather Models
Weixin Jin
Jonathan A. Weyn
Pengcheng Zhao
Siqi Xiang
Jiang Bian
Zuliang Fang
Haiyu Dong
Hongyu Sun
Kit Thambiratnam
Qi Zhang
177
7
0
14 Sep 2024
DUNE: A Machine Learning Deep UNet++ based Ensemble Approach to Monthly,
  Seasonal and Annual Climate Forecasting
DUNE: A Machine Learning Deep UNet++ based Ensemble Approach to Monthly, Seasonal and Annual Climate Forecasting
Pratik Shukla
Milton Halem
AI4ClAI4CE
246
2
0
12 Aug 2024
Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh
William D. Collins
Boris Bonev
Noah D. Brenowitz
Y. Cohen
...
Michael S. Pritchard
David Pruitt
Mark Risser
Shashank Subramanian
Jared Willard
627
25
0
06 Aug 2024
Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Huge Ensembles Part II: Properties of a Huge Ensemble of Hindcasts Generated with Spherical Fourier Neural Operators
Ankur Mahesh
William D. Collins
Boris Bonev
Noah D. Brenowitz
Y. Cohen
...
Michael S. Pritchard
David Pruitt
Mark Risser
Shashank Subramanian
Jared Willard
760
21
0
02 Aug 2024
Ensemble data assimilation to diagnose AI-based weather prediction
  model: A case with ClimaX
Ensemble data assimilation to diagnose AI-based weather prediction model: A case with ClimaX
S. Kotsuki
Kenta Shiraishi
Atsushi Okazaki
257
0
0
25 Jul 2024
Comparing and Contrasting DLWP Backbones on Navier-Stokes and Atmospheric Dynamics
Comparing and Contrasting DLWP Backbones on Navier-Stokes and Atmospheric Dynamics
Matthias Karlbauer
Danielle C. Maddix
Abdul Fatir Ansari
Boran Han
Gaurav Gupta
Yuyang Wang
Andrew Stuart
Michael W. Mahoney
AI4TS
380
4
0
19 Jul 2024
VarteX: Enhancing Weather Forecast through Distributed Variable
  Representation
VarteX: Enhancing Weather Forecast through Distributed Variable Representation
Ayumu Ueyama
Kazuhiko Kawamoto
Hiroshi Kera
280
1
0
28 Jun 2024
Probabilistic Emulation of a Global Climate Model with Spherical
  DYffusion
Probabilistic Emulation of a Global Climate Model with Spherical DYffusion
Salva Rühling Cachay
Brian Henn
Oliver Watt-Meyer
Christopher S. Bretherton
Rose Yu
SyDaAI4Cl
281
21
0
21 Jun 2024
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in a Machine Learning Earth System
  Model
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in a Machine Learning Earth System Model
Chenggong Wang
Michael S. Pritchard
Noah D. Brenowitz
Y. Cohen
Boris Bonev
Thorsten Kurth
Dale Durran
Jaideep Pathak
BDLAI4Cl
317
31
0
12 Jun 2024
EWMoE: An effective model for global weather forecasting with
  mixture-of-experts
EWMoE: An effective model for global weather forecasting with mixture-of-expertsAAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI), 2024
Lihao Gan
Xin Man
Chenghong Zhang
Jie Shao
298
9
0
09 May 2024
On the Foundations of Earth and Climate Foundation Models
On the Foundations of Earth and Climate Foundation Models
Xiao Xiang Zhu
Zhitong Xiong
Yi Wang
Adam J. Stewart
Konrad Heidler
Yuanyuan Wang
Zhenghang Yuan
Thomas Dujardin
Qingsong Xu
Yilei Shi
AI4ClAI4CE
364
53
0
07 May 2024
Validating Deep Learning Weather Forecast Models on Recent High-Impact Extreme Events
Validating Deep Learning Weather Forecast Models on Recent High-Impact Extreme Events
Olivier C. Pasche
Jonathan Wider
Zhongwei Zhang
Jakob Zscheischler
Sebastian Engelke
AI4Cl
464
36
0
26 Apr 2024
ClimODE: Climate and Weather Forecasting with Physics-informed Neural
  ODEs
ClimODE: Climate and Weather Forecasting with Physics-informed Neural ODEs
Yogesh Verma
Markus Heinonen
Vikas Garg
AI4CE
323
90
0
15 Apr 2024
An ensemble of data-driven weather prediction models for operational
  sub-seasonal forecasting
An ensemble of data-driven weather prediction models for operational sub-seasonal forecasting
Jonathan A. Weyn
Divya Kumar
Jeremy Berman
Najeeb Kazmi
Sylwester Klocek
Pete Luferenko
Kit Thambiratnam
AI4Cl
170
5
0
22 Mar 2024
KARINA: An Efficient Deep Learning Model for Global Weather Forecast
KARINA: An Efficient Deep Learning Model for Global Weather Forecast
Minjong Cheon
Yo-Hwan Choi
Seon-Yu Kang
Yumi Choi
Jeong-Gil Lee
Daehyun Kang
219
9
0
13 Mar 2024
Mamba-ND: Selective State Space Modeling for Multi-Dimensional Data
Mamba-ND: Selective State Space Modeling for Multi-Dimensional Data
Shufan Li
Harkanwar Singh
Aditya Grover
Mamba
584
114
0
08 Feb 2024
ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for
  Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction
ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction
Juan Nathaniel
Yongquan Qu
Tung Nguyen
Sungduk Yu
Julius J. M. Busecke
Aditya Grover
Pierre Gentine
AI4ClAI4TS
527
41
0
01 Feb 2024
A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather Models
A Practical Probabilistic Benchmark for AI Weather ModelsGeophysical Research Letters (GRL), 2024
Noah D. Brenowitz
Y. Cohen
Jaideep Pathak
Ankur Mahesh
Boris Bonev
Thorsten Kurth
Dale Durran
Peter Harrington
Michael S. Pritchard
314
36
0
27 Jan 2024
TPTNet: A Data-Driven Temperature Prediction Model Based on Turbulent
  Potential Temperature
TPTNet: A Data-Driven Temperature Prediction Model Based on Turbulent Potential Temperature
Jun Park
Changhoon Lee
232
4
0
22 Dec 2023
Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models?
  A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciarán
Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciaránnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science (npj Clim. Atmos. Sci.), 2023
A. Charlton-Perez
H. Dacre
Simon Driscoll
Suzanne L. Gray
Ben Harvey
...
Kieran M. R. Hunt
Robert W. Lee
Ranjini Swaminathan
R. Vandaele
Ambrogio Volonté
AI4Cl
334
66
0
05 Dec 2023
ClimateSet: A Large-Scale Climate Model Dataset for Machine Learning
ClimateSet: A Large-Scale Climate Model Dataset for Machine LearningNeural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), 2023
Julia Kaltenborn
C. E. E. Lange
Venkatesh Ramesh
Philippe Brouillard
Yaniv Gurwicz
Chandni Nagda
Jakob Runge
Peer Nowack
David Rolnick
AILaw
229
35
0
07 Nov 2023
Advancing Parsimonious Deep Learning Weather Prediction using the
  HEALPix Mesh
Advancing Parsimonious Deep Learning Weather Prediction using the HEALPix MeshJournal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES), 2023
Matthias Karlbauer
Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay
Dale Durran
Raul A Moreno
Thorsten Kurth
Boris Bonev
Noah D. Brenowitz
Martin Volker Butz
MDE
330
42
0
11 Sep 2023
AtmoRep: A stochastic model of atmosphere dynamics using large scale
  representation learning
AtmoRep: A stochastic model of atmosphere dynamics using large scale representation learning
C. Lessig
Ilaria Luise
Bing Gong
M. Langguth
S. Stadtler
Martin G. Schultz
332
51
0
25 Aug 2023
Efficient Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation in Regression Ensemble Models Using Pairwise-Distance Estimators
Efficient Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation in Regression Ensemble Models Using Pairwise-Distance Estimators
Lucas Berry
David Meger
UD
572
3
0
25 Aug 2023
Learning to simulate partially known spatio-temporal dynamics with
  trainable difference operators
Learning to simulate partially known spatio-temporal dynamics with trainable difference operators
Xiang Huang
Zhuoyuan Li
Hongsheng Liu
Zidong Wang
Hongye Zhou
Bin Dong
Bei Hua
AI4TSAI4CE
264
1
0
26 Jul 2023
Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the
  Sphere
Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the SphereInternational Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2023
Boris Bonev
Thorsten Kurth
Christian Hundt
Jaideep Pathak
Maximilian Baust
K. Kashinath
Anima Anandkumar
AI4ClAI4CE
334
267
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06 Jun 2023
Temporal Subsampling Diminishes Small Spatial Scales in Recurrent Neural
  Network Emulators of Geophysical Turbulence
Temporal Subsampling Diminishes Small Spatial Scales in Recurrent Neural Network Emulators of Geophysical TurbulenceJournal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES), 2023
T. A. Smith
S. Penny
Jason A. Platt
Tse-Chun Chen
286
11
0
28 Apr 2023
DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Earth System Models with Diffusion
  Models
DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Earth System Models with Diffusion Models
Seth Bassetti
Brian Hutchinson
Claudia Tebaldi
Ben Kravitz
DiffM
244
13
0
23 Apr 2023
Towards replacing precipitation ensemble predictions systems using
  machine learning
Towards replacing precipitation ensemble predictions systems using machine learningAtmospheric Science Letters (ASL), 2023
Rudiger Brecht
Alexander Bihlo
AI4Cl
349
0
0
20 Apr 2023
Inductive biases in deep learning models for weather prediction
Inductive biases in deep learning models for weather prediction
Jannik Thümmel
Matthias Karlbauer
S. Otte
C. Zarfl
Georg Martius
...
Thomas Scholten
Ulrich Friedrich
V. Wulfmeyer
B. Goswami
Martin Volker Butz
AI4CE
387
8
0
06 Apr 2023
A Machine Learning Outlook: Post-processing of Global Medium-range
  Forecasts
A Machine Learning Outlook: Post-processing of Global Medium-range Forecasts
Shreya Agrawal
Rob Carver
Cenk Gazen
E. Maddy
V. Krasnopolsky
Carla Bromberg
Zack Ontiveros
Tyler Russell
Jason Hickey
S. Boukabara
AI4Cl
174
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0
28 Mar 2023
ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate
ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climateInternational Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), 2023
Tung Nguyen
Johannes Brandstetter
Ashish Kapoor
Jayesh K. Gupta
Aditya Grover
AI4ClAI4CE
705
415
0
24 Jan 2023
KoopmanLab: machine learning for solving complex physics equations
KoopmanLab: machine learning for solving complex physics equationsAPL Machine Learning (AML), 2023
Wei Xiong
Muyuan Ma
Xiaomeng Huang
Ziyang Zhang
Pei Sun
Yang Tian
AI4CE
485
23
0
03 Jan 2023
Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global
  Weather Forecast
Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecast
Kaifeng Bi
Lingxi Xie
Hengheng Zhang
Xin Chen
Xiaotao Gu
Qi Tian
AI4Cl
711
251
0
03 Nov 2022
Towards Multi-spatiotemporal-scale Generalized PDE Modeling
Towards Multi-spatiotemporal-scale Generalized PDE Modeling
Jayesh K. Gupta
Johannes Brandstetter
AI4CE
408
202
0
30 Sep 2022
Adaptive Bias Correction for Improved Subseasonal Forecasting
Adaptive Bias Correction for Improved Subseasonal ForecastingNature Communications (Nat Commun), 2022
Soukayna Mouatadid
Paulo Orenstein
Genevieve Flaspohler
J. Cohen
Miruna Oprescu
E. Fraenkel
Lester W. Mackey
AI4Cl
528
51
0
21 Sep 2022
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